WASHINGTON, D.C. – On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion on Ukraine that sparked a conflict resulting in thousands of deaths and displacement of civilians. Despite widespread international condemnation, the conflict has escalated over the past year, leaving the future uncertain.
On February 25th, the Ukranian association of North Carolina organized a trip to Washington DC to attend a rally at the Lincoln Memorial.
The rally brought together students, volunteers, and Ukrainians living in North Carolina, including UNC student and volunteer Misha Shvets, one of the organizers of the trip.
For Shvets the rally was personal, as his family live in Ukraine. He highlights that it is not just Ukrainians who are showing support, but also Americans. “It is inspiring to see Ukrainian flags in front of the main building of the American nation. It is inspiring to see all the support. We do not only see Ukrainians here today, but Americans stand with us. It has been inspiring to see the support every day for one year. I am getting messages where people are donating their time, their money, their volunteering. They help us.”
Another organizer of the Rally is Maryna Kapustina, the president of the Ukrainian Association of North Carolina and Associate Professor at UNC Chapel Hill. She is grateful for the support and volunteer work that her organization has received. She also expresses her gratitude for America’s support and hopes for a quick end to the war. “We are still all together. We feel a lot of support from other countries, we still have a lot of support from Americans and yes, it’s sad that that’s what is happening. But this year taught us a lot about ourselves, about the country.”
The conflict has had a devastating impact on the people of Ukraine, particularly those living in the conflict zone. Many have lost their homes and livelihoods, and access to necessities like food, water, and healthcare is often limited.
The situation is especially dire for vulnerable groups like children, the elderly, and people with disabilities.
The director of the Center for Slavic, Eurasian and East European studies for UNC, professor Graham Robertson, believes that there is no easy way out of the war.
“I think we are going to see a lot of intense fighting over the next couple of months. In particular, I think April, May and June are going to be pretty decisive in terms of whether this war is going to go on for a long time or whether it is going to move relatively rapidly towards some kind of a deal.”
Robertson explains that the war began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. This time around, however, the Russians were not prepared for the military and political backlash from both Ukraine and the western world.
In addition to their military capabilities, The Russians also vastly overestimated their political influence according to Robertson. While the Russian offensive was not a total failure, Ukraine would be broken as a state if a settlement were enforced right now, as their access to the Black Sea and heartlands would be limited.
Robertson believes that one reason for the war was to prevent Ukraine from being a truly independent state with an independent foreign policy, something Putin’s Russia was not willing to tolerate. the cost, so far, has been enormous. Russia, now a pariah state, has its reputation stained in a way that will take generations to change.
Misha Shvets is not hopeful that Russia will have a sudden change of heart. Although grateful for the outpouring of solidarity, Shvets has a realist perspective on what is to come. “We have been fighting this war for nine years with Russia. The war started in 2014, and since 2014, we have tried to negotiate with Russia many times. And every time a negotiation is made, Russia breaks that and then gathers new power to strike again.”